New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Austin WellsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nestor CortesPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting3-5, 1 HR, 6 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Wells homered to right center (381 feet), Torres scored.3–9
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–9
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 11–9
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–9
- 8Guerrero Jr. singled to left, Kiner-Falefa scored, Guerrero Jr. to second.1–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–8
- 6Guerrero Jr. doubled to left, Kiner-Falefa scored, Kirk scored and Bichette scored.1–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 6Kiner-Falefa singled to left, Varsho scored, Bichette to second, Kirk to third.1–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 6Kirk singled to left, Springer scored, Varsho to second.1–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 5Judge singled to center, Volpe scored.1–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 4Kirk doubled to right, Turner scored, Springer to third.0–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 1Guerrero Jr. homered to right center (403 feet), Kiner-Falefa scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 54%
- ML NYY -130 / TOR +110
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- NYY: Elo 52.6%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -119
- TOR +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.4 – 4.1 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | 0 | NYY: Nestor Cortes: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +18 Elo | NYY 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.024th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.2 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3029–17 | Road vs home | 19–2019th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–37 | 39–42 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 29–32 | 21–26 |
| Underdog | 18–5 | 18–16 |
| Overs–unders | 44–39–1 | 39–41–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 11–10 TOR in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 21.