Cincinnati Reds at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Graham AshcraftPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis GilPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Judge homered to left (381 feet).5–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 6Rice doubled to right, Torres scored and Verdugo scored.5–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 35–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 25–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 6Torres singled to center, Judge scored, Torres to second, Verdugo to third.5–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 5De La Cruz homered to center (425 feet), India scored.5–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 5Benson homered to center (412 feet), Fairchild scored.3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 4Candelario grounded out to second, De La Cruz scored.1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 66%
- ML CIN +180 / NYY -215
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.8 pts
- NYY: Elo 57.9%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- NYY -191
- CIN +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.5 – 5.0 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −17 | CIN: Graham Ashcraft: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Luis Gil: team allows 0.83 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +55 Elo | NYY 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 64.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 63.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.97th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +1.25th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 16th of 3019–22 | Road vs home | 24–147th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–39 | 48–38 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 18–23 | 30–33 |
| Underdog | 27–16 | 18–5 |
| Overs–unders | 37–46–1 | 46–39–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 0–3 NYY in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.