Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Lenyn SosaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chad KuhlPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ben LivelyPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Sosa homered to left (398 feet).4–8
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–8
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 33–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 23–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–8
- 6Giménez grounded into fielder's choice to first, Ramírez scored, J. Naylor out at second.3–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–7
- 6DeJong homered to center (393 feet), Sheets scored.3–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 21–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–7
- 5Kwan walked, Giménez scored, Rocchio to second, Arias to third.1–7
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 41–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 31–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 5Giménez grounded into fielder's choice to first, J. Naylor scored, Noel out at second.1–6
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 21–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 3Bo Naylor singled to center, J. Naylor scored and Noel scored, Giménez to third.1–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 3J. Naylor grounded into fielder's choice to first, Martínez scored.1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Kwan homered to right center (373 feet).1–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Sosa singled to center, Jiménez scored.1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 66%
- ML CHW +185 / CLE -225
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- CLE: Elo 68.2%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- CLE -197
- CHW +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.5 – 5.0 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1415 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +5 | CHW: Jared Shuster: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CLE: Ben Lively: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +132 Elo | CLE 68.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 65.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 65.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.86th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.8 | Margin | +1.14th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 30th of 309–34 | Road vs home | 27–101st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–45 | 50–34 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 6–1 | 24–24 |
| Underdog | 37–44 | 26–10 |
| Overs–unders | 40–47–1 | 43–39–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 13–9 CLE in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 22.