Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Ramírez homered to left (407 feet).7–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 26–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 5Giménez singled to right, J. Naylor scored, Giménez to second, Fry to third.6–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 5J. Naylor doubled to right, Ramírez scored.5–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 5Ramírez doubled to left, Freeman scored.4–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 4Noel homered to left (413 feet), Giménez scored.3–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 21–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 2Massey homered to right (381 feet).1–2
- 2Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 21–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 11–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Pasquantino homered to right center (394 feet).1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1J. Naylor doubled to right, Kwan scored, Freeman to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 52%
- ML CLE -120 / KC +100
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- CLE: Elo 54.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -109
- KC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.8 – 3.7 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | +5 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.84 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +31 Elo | CLE 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.97th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +0.78th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 6th of 3025–20 | Road vs home | 29–155th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–31 | 48–35 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 23–22 | 17–17 |
| Underdog | 26–9 | 31–18 |
| Overs–unders | 40–38–2 | 35–47–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 8–9 KC in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 17.