Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Darren McCaughanPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Alec MarshPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Pasquantino homered to right (385 feet), Witt Jr. scored.3–10
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–10
- 8Garcia scored on McCaughan wild pitch, Witt Jr. to third on wild pitch by McCaughan.3–8
- 8Garcia scored on McCaughan wild pitch, Witt Jr. to third on wild pitch by McCaughan.3–8
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 23–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 13–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–7
- 8Schneemann hit sacrifice fly to center, Hedges scored.3–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–7
- 7Freeman grounded out to shortstop, J. Naylor scored.2–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–7
- 5Fermin hit sacrifice fly to left, Renfroe scored, Loftin to second, Melendez to third.1–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 4Isbel homered to right center (396 feet).1–6
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–6
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 11–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 3Melendez reached on infield single to shortstop, Pasquantino scored, Renfroe to second, Perez to third.1–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 3Perez singled to left, Witt Jr. scored, Pasquantino to second.1–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 3Pasquantino singled to right, Garcia scored, Witt Jr. to third.1–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2Renfroe homered to right (396 feet).1–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 51%
- ML CLE -105 / KC -115
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- KC: Elo 46.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- KC -104
- CLE +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.7 – 4.8 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −6 | CLE: Triston McKenzie: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · KC: Alec Marsh: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +27 Elo | CLE 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.98th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.3 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 6th of 3025–19 | Road vs home | 28–156th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–30 | 47–35 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 23–22 | 16–17 |
| Underdog | 26–8 | 31–18 |
| Overs–unders | 39–38–2 | 34–47–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 8–8 KC in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.