Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Chris FlexenPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Tyler FreemanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Carlos CarrascoPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bo Naylor hit sacrifice fly to center, Giménez scored.6–7
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–7
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 36–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 26–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 16–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–6
- 7Robert Jr. singled to center, Lopez scored and Sosa scored.6–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–6
- 7Sosa doubled to right, DeJong scored, Lopez to third.4–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 6Freeman homered to left (362 feet), Fry scored.3–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–4
- 6Fry grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, J. Naylor scored on error, Fry second.3–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 6Robert Jr. homered to left (363 feet), Lee scored.3–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 5Rocchio singled to right, Freeman scored.1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Schneemann homered to right (408 feet), Hedges scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Vaughn homered to center (417 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 66%
- ML CHW +180 / CLE -215
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- CLE: Elo 69.5%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- CLE -191
- CHW +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.5 – 5.0 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1411 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −5 | CHW: Chris Flexen: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Carlos Carrasco: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +143 Elo | CLE 69.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 63.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.84th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.9 | Margin | +1.24th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 30th of 308–33 | Road vs home | 26–91st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–45 | 50–32 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–1 | 24–22 |
| Underdog | 35–44 | 26–10 |
| Overs–unders | 38–47–1 | 41–39–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 12–8 CLE in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 20.