San Francisco Giants at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Michael ConfortoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Hayden BirdsongPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Guardians- Bo NaylorBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Carlos CarrascoPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Conforto grounded out to second, Chapman scored.4–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 23–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 6Bo Naylor homered to right (378 feet), Giménez scored and Freeman scored.3–5
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 23–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 13–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 4Schneemann doubled to center, Ramírez scored, J. Naylor to third.3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 4J. Naylor singled to right, Martínez scored, Ramírez to third.3–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3Ramos singled to center, Ahmed scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 32–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Conforto homered to right (440 feet), Bailey scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 54%
- ML SF +110 / CLE -130
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- CLE: Elo 55.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -119
- SF +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.1 – 4.4 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −8 | SF: Hayden Birdsong: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · CLE: Carlos Carrasco: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +36 Elo | CLE 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.15th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 23rd of 3019–26 | Road vs home | 29–111st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–43 | 51–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 17–23 | 25–26 |
| Underdog | 29–20 | 26–10 |
| Overs–unders | 49–39–1 | 45–40–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 3–2 CLE in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.