San Francisco Giants at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Tyler FitzgeraldBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Kyle HarrisonPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 7Conforto doubled to right, Chapman scored.4–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 6Noel homered to left (378 feet).3–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 5Chapman stole home, Fitzgerald stole second, Fitzgerald safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Martínez.3–4
- 5Chapman stole home, Fitzgerald stole second, Fitzgerald safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Martínez.3–4
- 5Fitzgerald singled to center, Ramos scored and Soler scored, Chapman to third.2–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 2Kwan homered to center (408 feet).0–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Freeman singled to right, Ramírez scored, Fry to third.0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Noel hit sacrifice fly to center, Martínez scored, Ramírez to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1J. Naylor grounded out to third, Kwan scored, Ramírez to second, Martínez to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 54%
- ML SF +110 / CLE -130
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- CLE: Elo 55.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -119
- SF +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.1 – 4.4 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −12 | SF: Kyle Harrison: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +36 Elo | CLE 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.85th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.15th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 20th of 3019–25 | Road vs home | 28–111st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–43 | 51–35 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 17–23 | 25–25 |
| Underdog | 28–20 | 26–10 |
| Overs–unders | 48–39–1 | 44–40–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 3–1 CLE in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.