San Francisco Giants at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Michael ConfortoBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Spencer BivensPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Giménez hit sacrifice fly to right, J. Naylor scored, Fry to third.4–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 4J. Naylor homered to center (426 feet).4–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 34–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 4Ahmed reached on bunt single to pitcher, Conforto scored, Wisely to second.4–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Conforto doubled to right, Wade Jr. scored and Ramos scored, Chapman to third.3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Bailey hit sacrifice fly to left, Soler scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 64%
- ML SF +165 / CLE -195
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- CLE: Elo 62.7%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- CLE -175
- SF +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.1 – 4.4 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | +16 | SF: Erik Miller: team allows 0.96 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.82 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +90 Elo | CLE 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 61.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 61.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.86th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.14th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3018–25 | Road vs home | 28–101st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–43 | 51–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–23 | 25–24 |
| Underdog | 27–20 | 26–10 |
| Overs–unders | 48–38–1 | 44–39–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 2–1 CLE in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.