Detroit Tigers at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Wenceel PerezBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Beau BrieskePitching2.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Steer homered to center (425 feet).5–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 25–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 8Kelly doubled to left, McKinstry scored.5–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 8Greene grounded out to second, Ibáñez scored, McKinstry to third.4–2
- 8Pitch 9 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball 33–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 23–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 8Canha doubled to right, Vierling scored, Ibáñez to third.3–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 8Pérez homered to right center (411 feet), Meadows scored.2–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 5Stephenson doubled to left, Martini scored and Steer scored.0–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 60%
- ML DET +140 / CIN -165
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- CIN: Elo 60.0%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- CIN -149
- DET +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.3 – 5.2 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −29 | +2 | DET: Alex Faedo: team allows 1.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +70 Elo | CIN 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.315th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 19th of 3021–26 | Road vs home | 20–2425th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–49 | 48–40 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–29 | 18–24 |
| Underdog | 29–20 | 30–16 |
| Overs–unders | 49–39 | 40–47–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–2 CIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.