Detroit Tigers at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Zach McKinstryBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 13 K
Reds- Jeimer CandelarioBatting1-4
- Graham AshcraftPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Meadows singled to center, Rogers scored.5–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 8McKinstry homered to right center (387 feet), Urshela scored.4–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 7Marte grounded out to shortstop, Candelario scored.2–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 7Keith singled to center, Rogers scored, Vierling to third.2–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4McKinstry singled to left, Pérez scored, Urshela to second.1–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 55%
- ML DET -135 / CIN +115
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- DET: Elo 48.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -124
- CIN +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.5 – 4.0 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | −8 | DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.97 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Graham Ashcraft: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +7 Elo | CIN 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–58th of 30 |
| 18th of 3022–26 | Road vs home | 20–2527th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–49 | 48–41 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–29 | 18–25 |
| Underdog | 30–20 | 30–16 |
| Overs–unders | 49–40 | 40–48–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 3–2 CIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.