Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Ben LivelyPitching5.1 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Gio UrshelaBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kenta MaedaPitching2.2 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 10Kelly hit sacrifice fly to right, Keith scored.9–8
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–8
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–7
- 10Rocchio hit sacrifice fly to left, Kwan scored, Ramírez to third.9–7
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball In Play9–7
- 10Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–7
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging8–7
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 28–7
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 18–7
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–7
- 10J. Naylor singled to center, Bo Naylor scored, Ramírez to second, Kwan to third.8–7
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–7
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging7–7
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 27–7
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 17–7
- 6Malloy homered to left (374 feet).7–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–6
- 6Urshela homered to left center (402 feet), Keith scored and Kelly scored.7–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–6
- 6J. Naylor grounded out to second, Hedges scored, Ramírez to second, Kwan to third.7–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–3
- 4Pérez grounded out to second, Urshela scored.6–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–3
- 3Keith homered to right (362 feet), Vierling scored.6–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 3Giménez doubled to right, J. Naylor scored and Ramírez scored.6–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 3Ramírez singled to center, Kwan scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 1J. Naylor homered to left center (369 feet), Ramírez scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Martínez homered to right (356 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 56%
- ML CLE -140 / DET +120
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- CLE: Elo 55.6%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -128
- DET +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.5 – 4.0 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −15 | CLE: Ben Lively: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · DET: Kenta Maeda: team allows 0.73 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +39 Elo | CLE 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 4th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 7th of 3026–22 | Road vs home | 20–2220th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–38 | 42–49 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 25–28 | 11–29 |
| Underdog | 26–10 | 31–20 |
| Overs–unders | 46–41–2 | 49–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 6–11 DET in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 17.