Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Gavin LuxBatting2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Landon KnackPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Phillies- Brandon MarshBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Schwarber homered to right (423 feet).1–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 6Rojas singled to left, Marsh scored.1–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 6Marsh tripled to right, Castellanos scored.1–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 31–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 5Lux homered to left (338 feet).1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 2Marsh homered to right (406 feet).0–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Turner homered to right center (383 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 58%
- ML LAD +130 / PHI -155
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- PHI: Elo 55.7%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -140
- LAD +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.4 – 5.1 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +1 | LAD: Anthony Banda (no track record yet) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +40 Elo | PHI 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +1.31st of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 4th of 3026–19 | Road vs home | 35–132nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–48 | 48–44 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 42–42 | 38–35 |
| Underdog | 3–6 | 10–9 |
| Overs–unders | 48–44–1 | 41–50–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 4–4 PHI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.