Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Bo NaylorBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Spencer HowardPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting3-4, 3 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Urshela doubled to left, Greene scored, McKinstry scored and Kelly scored.1–10
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–10
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–7
- 6McKinstry walked, Keith scored, Kelly to second, Greene to third.1–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 41–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 31–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 4Greene singled to left, Keith scored and Vierling scored, Greene to second.1–6
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–6
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 21–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 3Kelly homered to left (384 feet).1–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 3Bo Naylor homered to right (346 feet).1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Vierling reached on infield single to third, Báez scored, Keith to second, Pérez to third.0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Keith walked, Urshela scored, Pérez to second, Báez to third.0–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 40–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Greene singled to right, Pérez scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 53%
- ML CLE +105 / DET -125
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- DET: Elo 49.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -114
- CLE +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.6 – 3.9 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +5 | CLE: Spencer Howard: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +5 Elo | CLE 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.121st of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.1 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 7th of 3027–23 | Road vs home | 21–2321st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–40 | 44–49 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 25–30 | 11–29 |
| Underdog | 26–10 | 33–20 |
| Overs–unders | 48–41–2 | 51–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 7–12 DET in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 19.