Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- James PaxtonPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Tigers- Justyn-Henry MalloyBatting2-2, 1 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ohtani hit a ground rule double, Taylor scored, Barnes to third.4–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 8T. Hernández singled to right, Smith scored, Freeman to third.3–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 12–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 4Pages singled to right, T. Hernández scored.2–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 4Freeman homered to right center (405 feet).1–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 2Malloy tripled to right, Vilade scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Greene doubled to center, Vierling scored and Malloy scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 57%
- ML LAD +125 / DET -150
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.9 pts
- DET: Elo 48.5%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- DET -135
- LAD +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 3.4 – 4.1 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +21 | LAD: James Paxton: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 1.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +10 Elo | LAD 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.0 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 5th of 3026–20 | Road vs home | 22–2320th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–49 | 45–49 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 42–42 | 12–29 |
| Underdog | 3–7 | 33–20 |
| Overs–unders | 48–45–1 | 52–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 2–1 DET in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.