Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching2.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Dominic SmithBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Fermin singled to center, Blanco scored, Fermin to second, Hampson thrown out at third.4–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–5
- 7Smith singled to right, Devers scored.3–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 23–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 6Perez homered to left center (426 feet).3–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 4Melendez grounded into fielder's choice to second, Perez scored, Renfroe out at second.2–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 2Smith homered to right center (431 feet), Abreu scored.1–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 1Devers homered to right (439 feet), Duran scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 1Frazier homered to right center (414 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 58%
- ML KC +130 / BOS -155
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 52.9%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -140
- KC +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.4 – 5.1 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −15 | KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.77 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +20 Elo | BOS 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 21st of 3021–26 | Road vs home | 23–2623rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–41 | 44–51 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–21 | 18–34 |
| Underdog | 34–20 | 26–17 |
| Overs–unders | 40–54–1 | 44–49–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 3–6 BOS in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.