Kansas City Royals at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Alec MarshPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching6.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Goldschmidt homered to right (343 feet).6–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 8Perez singled to left, Witt Jr. scored.6–3
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 35–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 25–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 8Pasquantino hit sacrifice fly to left, Garcia scored.5–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Perez homered to center (424 feet).4–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 5Hampson doubled to center, Fermin scored and Melendez scored.3–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 5Melendez doubled to center, Renfroe scored, Fermin to third.1–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 3Burleson homered to right center (380 feet), Pagés scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 2Arenado homered to center (411 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 56%
- ML KC +120 / STL -140
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- STL: Elo 55.7%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -128
- KC +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.0 – 4.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +9 | KC: Alec Marsh: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +40 Elo | STL 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 24th of 3018–25 | Road vs home | 23–1813th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–40 | 45–44 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–21 | 14–25 |
| Underdog | 31–19 | 31–19 |
| Overs–unders | 38–52–1 | 41–46–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 2–2 STL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.