Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Isaac ParedesBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan PepiotPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 0 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting2-3, 1 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rosario doubled to left, Arozarena scored.2–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 7Perez singled to right, Garcia scored and Witt Jr. scored.1–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 3Pasquantino singled to center, Witt Jr. scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Witt Jr. doubled to left, Isbel scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Paredes homered to left (398 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 52%
- ML TB +100 / KC -120
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- KC: Elo 49.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- KC -109
- TB +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.2 – 4.3 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −8 | TB: Ryan Pepiot: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +6 Elo | TB 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.98th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 7th of 3020–17 | Road vs home | 30–176th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–47 | 49–37 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–31 | 18–18 |
| Underdog | 20–16 | 31–19 |
| Overs–unders | 43–42 | 36–49–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 6–5 KC in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.