Washington Nationals at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting1-2
- Patrick CorbinPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Rays- Isaac ParedesBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 7Arozarena homered to left (422 feet).0–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 4Siri hit sacrifice fly to center, Paredes scored.0–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 2Caballero homered to left (371 feet), DeLuca scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Paredes homered to left center (415 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TB 61%
- ML WSH +150 / TB -175
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- TB: Elo 58.8%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- TB -159
- WSH +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.2 – 4.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | +5 | WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.92 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +62 Elo | TB 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 62.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 62.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.725th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 12th of 3022–24 | Road vs home | 22–2522nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–33 | 36–47 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–6 | 17–31 |
| Underdog | 42–27 | 19–16 |
| Overs–unders | 38–43–1 | 43–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 1–4 TB in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.