Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Jesse WinkerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Padres- Jurickson ProfarBatting1-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Adam MazurPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 9Abrams singled to center, Young scored.7–9
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–9
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–9
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–9
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–9
- 8Ramírez doubled to left, Thomas scored.6–9
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 25–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–9
- 8Meneses hit sacrifice fly to right, Abrams scored.5–9
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–9
- 6Profar homered to right (353 feet), Higashioka scored, Johnson scored and Arraez scored.4–9
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 5Solano reached on infield single to second, Machado scored and Cronenworth scored.4–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 5Cronenworth singled to left, Arraez scored, Cronenworth to second, Machado to third.4–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 3Winker homered to right center (389 feet), Thomas scored.4–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 3Thomas tripled to right, Young scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 3Young singled to center, Senzel scored.1–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 53%
- ML WSH -125 / SD +105
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- WSH: Elo 45.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- WSH -114
- SD +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.9 – 3.6 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −17 | WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Adam Mazur: team allows 0.84 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +30 Elo | SD 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.212th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 11th of 3021–21 | Road vs home | 22–2117th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–30 | 42–41 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–5 | 19–31 |
| Underdog | 41–25 | 22–10 |
| Overs–unders | 35–42–1 | 44–38–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 3–4 SD in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.