Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Joey MenesesBatting3-5, 3 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Padres- Jurickson ProfarBatting1-5, 2 RBI
- Matt WaldronPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 10Profar singled to right, Kim scored and Merrill scored, Arraez to third.6–7
- 10Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–7
- 10Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 10Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 26–5
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 16–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–5
- 10Merrill singled to center, Cronenworth scored and Solano scored.6–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 10Senzel homered to left center (379 feet), Ruiz scored.6–3
- 10Pitch 10 : Ball In Play6–3
- 10Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 10Pitch 8 : Ball 34–3
- 10Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball 24–3
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball 14–3
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 10Ruiz doubled to right, Winker scored.4–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 7Meneses singled to left, Abrams scored, Winker to second.3–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Meneses reached on infield single to pitcher, Young scored, Abrams to third.2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 3Meneses hit a ground rule double, Abrams scored, Winker to third.1–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 2Higashioka doubled to right, Kim scored and Solano scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Kim reached on bunt single to pitcher, Cronenworth scored, Solano to second.0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SD 64%
- ML WSH +165 / SD -195
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- SD: Elo 61.1%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- SD -175
- WSH +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.1 – 4.4 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | +12 | WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.81 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Matt Waldron: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +78 Elo | SD 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 61.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 61.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 11th of 3021–20 | Road vs home | 21–2117th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–30 | 42–40 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–5 | 19–30 |
| Underdog | 40–25 | 22–10 |
| Overs–unders | 34–42–1 | 43–38–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 3–3 SD in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.