Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Lane ThomasBatting1-2, 2 RBI
- DJ HerzPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Padres- Kyle HigashiokaBatting3-4, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ramírez singled to right, L. García Jr. scored.5–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–8
- 9L. García Jr. doubled to right, Meneses scored and Thomas scored.4–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–8
- 9Thomas doubled to left, Nuñez scored and Young scored.2–8
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–8
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 30–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 20–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 10–8
- 8Higashioka homered to left (390 feet), Machado scored, Cronenworth scored and Kim scored.0–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–4
- 4Profar singled to center, Higashioka scored.0–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 4Rosario scored on Herz wild pitch, Higashioka to second on wild pitch by Herz.0–3
- 4Rosario scored on Herz wild pitch, Higashioka to second on wild pitch by Herz.0–3
- 2Higashioka homered to left (386 feet), Merrill scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SD 62%
- ML WSH +155 / SD -185
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- SD: Elo 56.5%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -166
- WSH +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.2 – 4.3 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −5 | WSH: DJ Herz: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +45 Elo | SD 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 64.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 63.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.212th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 13th of 3021–22 | Road vs home | 23–2116th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–31 | 43–41 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–6 | 19–31 |
| Underdog | 41–25 | 23–10 |
| Overs–unders | 36–42–1 | 45–38–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 3–5 SD in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.