Washington Nationals at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Ruiz singled to left, Ramírez scored.8–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 17–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–1
- 7Ramírez tripled to center, Winker scored and L. García Jr. scored.7–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–1
- 7L. García Jr. singled to center, Thomas scored, Winker to second.5–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 14–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 7Winker singled to left, Abrams scored, Thomas to second.4–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 7Abrams doubled to left, Young scored.3–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 4L. García Jr. scored on Civale wild pitch.2–1
- 4L. García Jr. scored on Civale wild pitch.2–1
- 1B. Lowe homered to right center (405 feet).1–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Abrams homered to right center (396 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 55%
- ML WSH +115 / TB -135
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- TB: Elo 54.7%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -124
- WSH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.5 – 4.0 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −3 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +33 Elo | TB 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.024th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.725th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 15th of 3021–24 | Road vs home | 22–2421st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–33 | 36–46 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 7–6 | 17–30 |
| Underdog | 41–27 | 19–16 |
| Overs–unders | 37–43–1 | 42–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 0–4 TB in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.