St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Willson ContrerasBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Nationals- Jesse WinkerBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- DJ HerzPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Contreras homered to left (395 feet), Siani scored.8–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 6Winker doubled to center, Wood scored.6–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 26–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 5Arenado singled to left, Burleson scored and Contreras scored.6–2
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 34–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 24–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 14–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 5Contreras singled to center, Winn scored, Burleson to second.4–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 4Gorman singled to left, Goldschmidt scored.3–2
- 4Pitch 8 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball 32–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 2Adams singled to right, Yepez scored.2–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Yepez doubled to center, Winker scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Carlson singled to right, Gorman scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 2Gorman doubled to left, Donovan scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 51%
- ML STL -105 / WSH -115
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- WSH: Elo 51.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- WSH -104
- STL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.7 – 4.8 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −6 | STL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: DJ Herz: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +9 Elo | WSH 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.217th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 13th of 3022–24 | Road vs home | 20–2221st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–44 | 52–37 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 14–25 | 8–7 |
| Underdog | 29–19 | 44–30 |
| Overs–unders | 40–45–2 | 42–46–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 5–3 WSH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.