St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Willson ContrerasBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 11Contreras struck out, Winn scored, Contreras to first on passed ball by Adams.7–6
- 11Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging7–6
- 11Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–6
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–6
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 16–6
- 10Ruiz singled to right, Wood scored.6–6
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 16–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–5
- 10Gorman singled to center, Donovan scored, Gorman to second.6–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–5
- 9Contreras homered to center (407 feet).5–5
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 24–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 8Gorman singled to center, Arenado scored.4–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 5Contreras singled to left, Winn scored.3–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 4Pagés reached on infield single to third, Arenado scored, Donovan to second.2–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 4Carlson hit sacrifice fly to right, Goldschmidt scored, Arenado to third.1–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 3L. García Jr. homered to center (391 feet).0–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 2Abrams doubled to right, Senzel scored and Young scored.0–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1L. García Jr. singled to right, Winker scored, Ruiz to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 59%
- ML STL -155 / WSH +135
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.1 pts
- STL: Elo 50.8%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- STL -143
- WSH +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.6 – 3.9 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −17 | STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.84 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +5 Elo | STL 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 64.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 62.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.120th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 13th of 3021–23 | Road vs home | 19–2121st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–42 | 50–37 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 14–24 | 7–7 |
| Underdog | 29–18 | 43–30 |
| Overs–unders | 38–45–2 | 40–46–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 4–2 WSH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.