New York Mets at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Christian ScottPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting2-3, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Mitchell ParkerPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8L. García Jr. homered to center (423 feet).5–7
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 25–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–6
- 7Wood singled to center, Thomas scored.5–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 7Thomas doubled to left, Abrams scored.5–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 25–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 6L. García Jr. homered to right (397 feet), Wood scored and Winker scored.5–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 5Vargas singled to right, L. García Jr. scored, Meneses to second.5–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 35–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 25–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 5Lindor homered to left center (414 feet), Gamel scored.5–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 33–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 4Vientos homered to center (435 feet), Martinez scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 11–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 53%
- ML NYM -125 / WSH +105
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- NYM: Elo 50.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -114
- WSH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.4 – 4.1 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +6 | NYM: Christian Scott: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · WSH: Mitchell Parker: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +3 Elo | NYM 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.120th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.318th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 30 |
| 6th of 3020–16 | Road vs home | 17–2126th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–45 | 49–36 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 14–27 | 7–6 |
| Underdog | 23–18 | 42–30 |
| Overs–unders | 44–38 | 39–45–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 12–6 WSH in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 18.