Houston Astros at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jake MeyersBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Mets- Mark VientosBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tylor MegillPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Dubón doubled to left, Diaz scored and Meyers scored.9–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking7–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–6
- 8Bregman singled to right, Cabbage scored and Peña scored, Altuve to third.7–6
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play7–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 35–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 25–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 15–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–6
- 8Meyers scored on Garrett wild pitch, Cabbage to second on wild pitch by Garrett, Peña to third on wild pitch by Garrett.5–6
- 8Meyers scored on Garrett wild pitch, Cabbage to second on wild pitch by Garrett, Peña to third on wild pitch by Garrett.5–6
- 4Singleton singled to left, Peña scored.4–6
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–6
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 4Peña doubled to left, Meyers scored and Alvarez scored.3–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul3–6
- 3Vientos homered to center (429 feet).1–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–6
- 2Alonso singled to center, Bader scored and Nimmo scored.1–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 2Nimmo doubled to left, Iglesias scored, Bader to third.1–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Bader singled to right, Vientos scored, Iglesias to second.1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Iglesias grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Taylor scored on error, Vientos safe at third on throwing error by pitcher Valdez.1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Meyers homered to right (348 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 52%
- ML HOU +100 / NYM -120
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- NYM: Elo 48.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -109
- HOU +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.2 – 4.3 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −2 | HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +12 Elo | HOU 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 25th of 3014–22 | Road vs home | 21–2218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–41 | 35–43 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 26–33 | 12–25 |
| Underdog | 11–8 | 23–18 |
| Overs–unders | 30–45–3 | 41–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 2–2 NYM in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.