Houston Astros at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ronel BlancoPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Mets- Jeff McNeilBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lindor doubled to center, McNeil scored.2–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 6McNeil homered to right (346 feet), Alvarez scored and Vientos scored.2–6
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–6
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 22–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 6Alonso homered to left center (419 feet).2–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 4Taylor homered to right center (391 feet).2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Peña singled to left, Alvarez scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Alvarez hit sacrifice fly to center, Lindor scored.1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Altuve homered to left center (408 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 51%
- ML HOU -105 / NYM -115
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- NYM: Elo 48.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NYM -104
- HOU +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.2 – 4.3 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | +11 | HOU: Ronel Blanco: team allows 0.89 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYM: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +14 Elo | HOU 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 23rd of 3014–21 | Road vs home | 20–2221st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–40 | 34–43 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 26–33 | 11–25 |
| Underdog | 11–7 | 23–18 |
| Overs–unders | 29–45–3 | 40–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 2–1 NYM in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.