Houston Astros at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jon SingletonBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shawn DubinPitching3.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 11Cabbage doubled to right, Loperfido scored and Meyers scored.10–5
- 11Pitch 7 : Ball In Play10–5
- 11Pitch 6 : Ball 18–5
- 11Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–5
- 11Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul10–5
- 11Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–5
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–5
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–5
- 11Loperfido singled to left, Alvarez scored and Diaz scored, Meyers to second.8–5
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–5
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–5
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–5
- 11Meyers singled to left, Bregman scored, Diaz to second, Alvarez to third.6–5
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 10Nimmo doubled to right, Lindor scored.5–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–5
- 10McCormick singled to left, Dubón scored.5–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 7Nimmo homered to left center (412 feet), Torrens scored.4–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 6Vientos doubled to left, Alonso scored and Nimmo scored.4–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 5Altuve reached on infield single to shortstop, Dubón scored.4–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4Meyers grounded out to shortstop, Alvarez scored, Diaz to second.3–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 4Diaz singled to right, Bregman scored, Alvarez to third.2–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Singleton homered to center (393 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 52%
- ML HOU +100 / NYM -120
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- NYM: Elo 49.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -109
- HOU +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.2 – 4.3 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −2 | HOU: Shawn Dubin: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · NYM: Luis Severino: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +6 Elo | HOU 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 3015–22 | Road vs home | 21–2320th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–41 | 35–44 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 26–33 | 12–26 |
| Underdog | 12–8 | 23–18 |
| Overs–unders | 31–45–3 | 42–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 3–2 NYM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.