New York Mets at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- J.D. MartinezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- David PetersonPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Nationals- Keibert RuizBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 10Ruiz singled to center, Vargas scored, Wood to second.9–7
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–7
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 19–7
- 10Vargas doubled to right, Abrams scored and Winker scored.9–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–6
- 10Winker doubled to left, Young scored, Abrams to third.9–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–4
- 10Iglesias homered to center (413 feet), Alvarez scored.9–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–3
- 10Alvarez tripled to right, Taylor scored.7–3
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–3
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking6–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 26–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 16–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 10Martinez homered to center (420 feet), Lindor scored and Bader scored.6–3
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 8Meneses singled to right, Winker scored on error, Meneses safe at second on fielding error by right fielder Taylor.3–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Alvarez doubled to center, Taylor scored and Vientos scored.3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Vientos singled to left, Bader scored.1–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 3Meneses singled to center, Thomas scored, Ramírez to second.0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 3Ramírez singled to center, Abrams scored, Thomas to third.0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 52%
- ML NYM -120 / WSH +100
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- NYM: Elo 50.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -109
- WSH +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.3 – 4.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −1 | NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +3 Elo | NYM 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.120th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 8th of 3018–16 | Road vs home | 17–1921st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–45 | 49–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 12–27 | 7–6 |
| Underdog | 23–18 | 42–28 |
| Overs–unders | 43–37 | 38–44–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 10–6 WSH in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 16.