New York Mets at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- DJ HerzPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 10Alonso homered to left (382 feet), Gamel scored.7–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 25–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 10Vientos singled to left, Nimmo scored.5–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 10Nimmo doubled to left, Iglesias scored.4–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 10Iglesias doubled to right, Taylor scored.3–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 8Nimmo singled to left, Lindor scored.2–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 6Lindor homered to left (403 feet).1–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 5Ramírez grounded into fielder's choice to third, Young scored, Thomas out at second.0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Abrams reached on infield single to shortstop, Senzel scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 56%
- ML NYM -140 / WSH +120
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- NYM: Elo 51.5%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -128
- WSH +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 5.0 – 4.5 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −2 | NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · WSH: DJ Herz: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +11 Elo | NYM 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.120th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 7th of 3019–16 | Road vs home | 17–2024th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–45 | 49–35 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–27 | 7–6 |
| Underdog | 23–18 | 42–29 |
| Overs–unders | 44–37 | 39–44–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 11–6 WSH in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 17.