St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching7.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 10N. Gonzales hit sacrifice fly to left, Taylor scored.3–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 10Burleson singled to left, Pagés scored.3–1
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 10Pagés doubled to left, Siani scored.2–1
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 4Reynolds homered to center (427 feet).1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Carlson doubled to left, Donovan scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 50%
- ML STL -110 / PIT -110
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- PIT: Elo 49.3%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- PIT -100
- STL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.3 – 4.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −11 | STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · PIT: Martin Perez: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +5 Elo | STL 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.023rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.419th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 16th of 3020–23 | Road vs home | 20–2118th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–42 | 41–42 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 14–24 | 9–25 |
| Underdog | 28–18 | 32–17 |
| Overs–unders | 38–44–2 | 41–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 7–11 PIT in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 18.