St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Willson ContrerasBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Pirates- Rowdy TellezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jared JonesPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Cruz singled to right, McCutchen scored, Reynolds to third.4–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–5
- 10Reynolds singled to center, Triolo scored, McCutchen to second.4–4
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 24–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 10Burleson hit sacrifice fly to center, Carlson scored.4–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Contreras homered to center (422 feet), Burleson scored.3–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Tellez homered to left (339 feet).1–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 5Bart hit sacrifice fly to right, N. Gonzales scored.1–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 5Hayes grounded out to shortstop, Tellez scored, N. Gonzales to third.1–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 5Winn singled to center, Crawford scored.1–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 53%
- ML STL +105 / PIT -125
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- PIT: Elo 49.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -114
- STL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.1 – 4.4 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −21 | STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Jared Jones: team allows 1.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +5 Elo | STL 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 13th of 3020–22 | Road vs home | 19–2120th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–42 | 41–41 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 14–24 | 9–24 |
| Underdog | 27–18 | 32–17 |
| Overs–unders | 37–44–2 | 40–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 7–10 PIT in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 17.