St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Masyn WinnBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Giovanny GallegosPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Nationals- James WoodBatting2-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching3.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8L. García Jr. doubled to right, Ruiz scored.6–14
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–14
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–13
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging6–13
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 36–13
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging6–13
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 26–13
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–13
- 7Siani grounded out to second, Donovan scored, Gorman to third.6–13
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–13
- 4Thomas singled to left, L. García Jr. scored and Yepez scored, Young to second.5–13
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–13
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 35–13
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging5–13
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 25–11
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 15–11
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–11
- 4Winn scored on Gore wild pitch, Burleson to third on wild pitch by Gore.5–11
- 4Winn scored on Gore wild pitch, Burleson to third on wild pitch by Gore.5–11
- 3Wood doubled to left, Abrams scored and Lipscomb scored.4–11
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–11
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–9
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–9
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Swinging4–9
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 34–9
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 24–9
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–9
- 3Donovan singled to center, Goldschmidt scored, Arenado to third.4–9
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–9
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 24–9
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–9
- 3Arenado singled to left, Winn scored, Goldschmidt to second.3–9
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–9
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–9
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–9
- 3Contreras grounded out to second, Siani scored, Winn to third.2–9
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–9
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–9
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–9
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–9
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 54%
- ML STL +110 / WSH -130
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- WSH: Elo 50.6%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- WSH -119
- STL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.1 – 4.4 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −6 | STL: Lance Lynn: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +4 Elo | WSH 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.119th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 13th of 3022–23 | Road vs home | 19–2223rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–43 | 51–37 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 14–25 | 7–7 |
| Underdog | 29–18 | 44–30 |
| Overs–unders | 39–45–2 | 41–46–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 5–2 WSH in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.