Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Jonny DeLucaBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Alec MarshPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Witt Jr. homered to left (397 feet).10–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 110–7
- 7Paredes singled to left, Caballero scored, Rosario to third.10–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking9–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 19–7
- 6Loftin grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Hampson scored on throwing error by second baseman Palacios, Fermin out at second.9–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–6
- 6Hampson doubled to center, Renfroe scored.9–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 19–5
- 6Renfroe singled to right, Massey scored.9–5
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play9–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul9–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 29–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 19–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul9–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–4
- 6B. Lowe homered to right center (421 feet).9–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging8–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 18–4
- 5Pasquantino grounded out to first, Isbel scored, Witt Jr. to third.8–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 28–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul8–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 18–3
- 5Rortvedt singled to right, Arozarena scored and J. Lowe scored.8–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking6–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging6–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 26–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 5Walls hit sacrifice fly to left, B. Lowe scored, Arozarena to third.6–3
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 35–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 51%
- ML TB -115 / KC -105
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- TB: Elo 51.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -104
- KC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.3 – 4.2 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −4 | TB: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Alec Marsh: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +11 Elo | TB 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.97th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 9th of 3020–18 | Road vs home | 31–174th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–48 | 50–37 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–31 | 19–18 |
| Underdog | 20–17 | 31–19 |
| Overs–unders | 43–43 | 36–50–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 6–6 KC in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.