Kansas City Royals at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Rockies- Jake CaveBatting2-3
- Tanner GordonPitching6.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Witt Jr. homered to left (386 feet), Isbel scored and Renfroe scored.10–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 8Fermin hit sacrifice fly to left, Perez scored.7–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 26–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 8Massey singled to center, Witt Jr. scored, Perez to second.6–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–1
- 7Jones singled to center, Cave scored, Toglia to third.5–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 7Melendez homered to right (385 feet).5–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 35–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 25–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 2Garcia homered to left center (382 feet), Massey scored and Fermin scored.4–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Fermin singled to center, Perez scored, Massey to second.1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- KC 58%
- ML KC -150 / COL +130
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- KC: Elo 53.2%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- KC -138
- COL +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 5.6 – 4.9 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1423 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +18 | KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Tanner Gordon (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | KC +22 Elo | KC 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −1.629th of 30 |
| 7th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–57th of 30 |
| 24th of 3017–25 | Road vs home | 20–2425th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–40 | 42–44 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 19–21 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 31–19 | 41–38 |
| Overs–unders | 37–52–1 | 46–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 1–4 COL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.