Kansas City Royals at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Freddy FerminBatting3-3
- Cole RagansPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Rockies- Brenton DoyleBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Doyle hit a ground rule double, Schunk scored and McMahon scored, Hilliard to third.2–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 6Díaz singled to left, Rodgers scored.2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Hampson grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Fermin scored, Loftin out at second.2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 3Toglia homered to left center (382 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Perez singled to left, Witt Jr. scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- KC 62%
- ML KC -185 / COL +155
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- KC: Elo 56.8%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- KC -166
- COL +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 5.8 – 4.7 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1419 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +4 | KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +47 Elo | KC 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 64.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 63.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.930th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −1.729th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3017–23 | Road vs home | 18–2427th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–38 | 40–44 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 19–19 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 31–19 | 39–38 |
| Overs–unders | 37–50–1 | 46–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 1–2 COL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.