Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- MJ MelendezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Red Sox- Ceddanne RafaelaBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Cooper CriswellPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Melendez homered to right center (392 feet).6–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 4Witt Jr. homered to center (429 feet).5–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 2Rafaela doubled to center, Westbrook scored.4–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 2Perez singled to left, Frazier scored, Witt Jr. thrown out at home.4–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking4–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 34–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 2Pasquantino hit sacrifice fly to right, Isbel scored, Witt Jr. to second, Frazier to third.3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 2Frazier singled to center, Melendez scored, Isbel to second.2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 1Perez hit sacrifice fly to left, Frazier scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 51%
- ML KC -115 / BOS -105
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- KC: Elo 44.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- KC -104
- BOS +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.8 – 4.7 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −2 | KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Cooper Criswell: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +36 Elo | BOS 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 20th of 3020–25 | Road vs home | 22–2522nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–40 | 43–50 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 20–21 | 17–33 |
| Underdog | 33–19 | 26–17 |
| Overs–unders | 40–52–1 | 44–47–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 2–5 BOS in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.