Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Kutter CrawfordPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Juan SotoBatting1-4
- Luis GilPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Devers homered to center (423 feet).3–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 8Rafaela homered to left (412 feet).2–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 7Devers homered to left center (373 feet).1–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 54%
- ML BOS +110 / NYY -130
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- NYY: Elo 56.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -119
- BOS +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.1 – 4.4 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −13 | BOS: Kutter Crawford: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Luis Gil: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +42 Elo | NYY 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 59.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +1.14th of 30 |
| 7th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–730th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3028–17 | Road vs home | 25–1810th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–49 | 49–42 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 15–32 | 31–37 |
| Underdog | 25–17 | 18–5 |
| Overs–unders | 43–44–2 | 49–41–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 12–6 NYY in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 18.