Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Josh WinckowskiPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting3-5, 3 HR, 7 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Rice homered to right center (406 feet), Cabrera scored and LeMahieu scored.4–14
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–14
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–11
- 7LeMahieu singled to right, Grisham scored, Cabrera to second.4–11
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–11
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–10
- 5Rice homered to right center (406 feet), Wells scored and LeMahieu scored.4–10
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–10
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–7
- 5LeMahieu singled to left, Grisham scored, Wells to second.4–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–6
- 5Cabrera hit sacrifice fly to right, Volpe scored.4–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 5Wells walked, Verdugo scored, Grisham to second, Volpe to third.4–5
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball 44–5
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 34–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 5Volpe hit a ground rule double, Judge scored, Verdugo to third.4–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 5Devers homered to center (441 feet).4–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 3Verdugo homered to center (422 feet), Judge scored.3–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 61%
- ML BOS +150 / NYY -175
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- NYY: Elo 53.9%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- NYY -159
- BOS +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.7 – 4.8 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | +5 | BOS: Josh Winckowski: team allows 0.90 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +27 Elo | NYY 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 61.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 60.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +1.05th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3028–16 | Road vs home | 24–1810th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–48 | 48–42 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 15–32 | 30–37 |
| Underdog | 25–16 | 18–5 |
| Overs–unders | 42–44–2 | 48–41–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 12–5 NYY in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 17.