Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Romy GonzalezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tanner HouckPitching3.1 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Yankees- Austin WellsBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Nestor CortesPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 10Rafaela homered to center (412 feet), Hamilton scored.5–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 9Yoshida homered to right (405 feet), Smith scored.3–3
- 9Pitch 8 : Ball In Play3–3
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 31–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 21–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 11–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 5González homered to left center (410 feet).1–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 10–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 4Grisham grounded out to second, Cabrera scored, Volpe to second, Wells to third.0–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 4Volpe walked, Judge scored, Wells to second, Cabrera to third.0–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 40–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 30–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 4Wells grounded into fielder's choice to second, Soto scored, Cabrera safe at second on throwing error by second baseman Valdez, Judge to third.0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 56%
- ML BOS +120 / NYY -140
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- NYY: Elo 55.1%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- NYY -128
- BOS +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.0 – 4.5 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −9 | BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Nestor Cortes: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +35 Elo | NYY 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.98th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +1.15th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3027–16 | Road vs home | 24–1710th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–48 | 48–41 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 15–32 | 30–36 |
| Underdog | 24–16 | 18–5 |
| Overs–unders | 42–43–2 | 48–40–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 11–5 NYY in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 16.