Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Ceddanne RafaelaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kutter CrawfordPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Marlins- Jake BurgerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Valente BellozoPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Duran homered to right center (433 feet).8–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 27–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–3
- 7Rivera singled to center, Edwards scored.7–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–3
- 7J. Sánchez homered to center (448 feet).7–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 7Yoshida singled to center, Devers scored, Wong to third.7–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 16–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 7Wong reached on infield single to shortstop, O'Neill scored, Devers to second.6–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 5Burger homered to left center (402 feet).5–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 4Rafaela homered to left center (379 feet), Yoshida scored and Valdez scored.5–0
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Devers singled to right, O'Neill scored and Abreu scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 59%
- ML BOS -155 / MIA +135
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 52.7%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- BOS -143
- MIA +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.6 – 3.9 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1451 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +3 | BOS: Kutter Crawford: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Valente Bellozo: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +19 Elo | BOS 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 57.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.529th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.028th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.528th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 4th of 3024–16 | Road vs home | 16–2729th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–47 | 35–49 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–31 | 1–18 |
| Underdog | 24–16 | 34–31 |
| Overs–unders | 39–43–2 | 43–40–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 0–3 MIA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.