San Diego Padres at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Devers homered to center (439 feet).9–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–2
- 5Merrill homered to center (407 feet), Machado scored and Solano scored.9–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 5Solano singled to center, Cronenworth scored and Profar scored, Machado to third.6–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 5Cronenworth singled to left, Arraez scored and Johnson scored, Profar to second.4–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 5Higashioka homered to left center (352 feet), Kim scored.2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 4Wong singled to right, Abreu scored, Devers to third.0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 58%
- ML SD +130 / BOS -150
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- BOS: Elo 53.1%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- BOS -138
- SD +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.4 – 5.1 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +13 | SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BOS: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +22 Elo | BOS 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 57.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 11th of 3019–19 | Road vs home | 19–2224th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–41 | 36–45 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 20–31 | 12–29 |
| Underdog | 23–10 | 24–16 |
| Overs–unders | 46–38–1 | 37–42–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 1–2 BOS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.