San Diego Padres at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting3-4
- Matt WaldronPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Josh WinckowskiPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7Kim doubled to left, Merrill scored.1–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 30–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 20–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 5Duran homered to right (359 feet).0–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 3Abreu scored, Devers to second on passed ball by Higashioka.0–3
- 3Abreu scored, Devers to second on passed ball by Higashioka.0–3
- 1Devers homered to left (363 feet), Abreu scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 51%
- ML SD -105 / BOS -115
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 49.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -104
- SD +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.7 – 4.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +13 | SD: Matt Waldron: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: Josh Winckowski: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +4 Elo | SD 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 9th of 3021–19 | Road vs home | 19–2425th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–41 | 36–47 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 20–31 | 12–31 |
| Underdog | 25–10 | 24–16 |
| Overs–unders | 48–38–1 | 39–42–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 3–2 BOS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.