San Diego Padres at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting2-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Michael KingPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tanner HouckPitching4.1 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Merrill doubled to right, Cronenworth scored, D. Peralta to third.11–1
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play11–1
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul10–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 310–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 210–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul10–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 110–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging10–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–1
- 6Duran homered to right (390 feet).10–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–1
- 5Sullivan homered to right (359 feet), Kim scored.10–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 18–0
- 5Machado homered to center (421 feet), Profar scored and Cronenworth scored.8–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 5Cronenworth singled to right, Arraez scored, Profar to second.5–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 4Merrill homered to left center (390 feet).4–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 3Machado homered to left center (403 feet), Arraez scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 31–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Kim singled to center, Solano scored on fielding error by center fielder Duran, Merrill safe at third on error.1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 56%
- ML SD +120 / BOS -140
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- BOS: Elo 50.6%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -128
- SD +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.0 – 4.5 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +8 | SD: Michael King: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +4 Elo | BOS 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 10th of 3020–19 | Road vs home | 19–2325th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–41 | 36–46 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 20–31 | 12–30 |
| Underdog | 24–10 | 24–16 |
| Overs–unders | 47–38–1 | 38–42–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 2–2 BOS in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.