Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Tyler O'NeillBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Marlins- Jesus SanchezBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle TylerPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 12Bride hit sacrifice fly to center, Bruján scored.6–5
- 12Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–5
- 12Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 12Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–4
- 12Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 12O'Neill doubled to center, Rafaela scored.6–4
- 12Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–4
- 12Pitch 4 : Ball 25–4
- 12Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 12Pitch 2 : Ball 15–4
- 12Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 12Hamilton grounded out to third, González scored, Rafaela to third.5–4
- 12Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 11J. Sánchez homered to center (431 feet), Bell scored.4–4
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 11Valdez singled to right, O'Neill scored, Refsnyder to second, Devers to third.4–2
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 11O'Neill reached on infield single to shortstop, Duran scored on error, O'Neill safe at second on throwing error by shortstop Edwards.3–2
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 8De La Cruz singled to center, Gordon scored, Chisholm Jr. to third.2–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Chisholm Jr. singled to right, Bruján scored, Gordon to second.2–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 6Devers grounded out to first, Hamilton scored, O'Neill to third.2–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Devers grounded out to first, Hamilton scored, O'Neill to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 59%
- ML BOS -155 / MIA +135
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 55.3%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- BOS -143
- MIA +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.6 – 3.9 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1446 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +12 | BOS: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIA: Kyle Tyler: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +37 Elo | BOS 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.529th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.029th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −1.628th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3026–16 | Road vs home | 16–2929th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–47 | 35–51 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–31 | 1–18 |
| Underdog | 24–16 | 34–33 |
| Overs–unders | 41–43–2 | 45–40–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 2–3 MIA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.