Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Ceddanne RafaelaBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Marlins- Jesus SanchezBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rivera hit sacrifice fly to center, Edwards scored.7–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 17–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–1
- 9Rafaela doubled to left, Devers scored, Smith scored and Yoshida scored.7–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 9Devers tripled to right, O'Neill scored.4–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 7Yoshida grounded out to third, Devers scored, González to second, Wong to third.3–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Yoshida reached on infield single to second, O'Neill scored, González to second, Devers to third.2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Devers reached on infield single to shortstop, Refsnyder scored, O'Neill to third.1–1
- 3Pitch 9 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball 30–1
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1J. Sánchez singled to right, Chisholm Jr. scored, De La Cruz to second.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 54%
- ML BOS -130 / MIA +110
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 53.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -119
- MIA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.9 – 3.6 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1449 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | −4 | BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.83 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +26 Elo | BOS 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 57.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.529th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.029th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −1.528th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3025–16 | Road vs home | 16–2829th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–47 | 35–50 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–31 | 1–18 |
| Underdog | 24–16 | 34–32 |
| Overs–unders | 40–43–2 | 44–40–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 1–3 MIA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.