Oakland Athletics at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Lawrence ButlerBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- JP SearsPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Red Sox- Rob RefsnyderBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching6.2 IP, 4 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Nevin hit sacrifice fly to right, Rooker scored, Butler to second, Langeliers to third.5–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 34–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 7O'Neill reached on infield single to third, Rafaela scored, Abreu to second, Duran to third.4–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Bleday doubled to center, Schuemann scored.4–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 23–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 6Refsnyder homered to left (394 feet).3–1
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 33–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 23–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 13–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 3Butler doubled to left, Andujar scored and Rooker scored, Langeliers to third.3–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 3Langeliers walked, Schuemann scored, Rooker to second, Andujar to third.1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 41–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 63%
- ML OAK +160 / BOS -190
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- BOS: Elo 64.0%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- BOS -170
- OAK +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.7 – 5.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1426 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +3 | OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +100 Elo | BOS 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 65.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 64.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 29th of 3012–34 | Road vs home | 21–2423rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–47 | 42–49 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 16–32 |
| Underdog | 40–41 | 26–17 |
| Overs–unders | 43–49 | 44–45–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 2–8 BOS in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.