Baltimore Orioles at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Austin HaysBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Albert SuarezPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Athletics- Miguel AndujarBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hogan HarrisPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Langeliers homered to center (412 feet).3–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 2Rutschman walked, Hays scored, McCann to second, Cowser to third.3–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball 43–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 32–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 2Hays doubled to left, Westburg scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 31–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 1Andujar homered to left (402 feet).1–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Henderson scored on throwing error by catcher Langeliers.1–0
- 1Henderson scored on throwing error by catcher Langeliers.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 59%
- ML BAL -155 / OAK +135
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.7 pts
- BAL: Elo 67.5%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- BAL -143
- OAK +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.6 – 3.9 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1424 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −3 | BAL: Albert Suarez: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · OAK: Hogan Harris: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +127 Elo | BAL 67.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 61.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 62.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.628th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.3 | Margin | −1.127th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3026–15 | Road vs home | 21–2320th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–38 | 43–45 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 34–34 | 5–6 |
| Underdog | 15–4 | 38–39 |
| Overs–unders | 47–38–2 | 40–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 7–3 OAK in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.