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Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast

FinalESPN

Away

Rangers

38-46

11–2

at

Home

Orioles

53-31

TEX 38%BAL 62%

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Oriole Park at Camden Yards · ESPN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.

BAL75%50%75%TEXStart12345678Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Rangers
  • Wyatt LangfordBatting4-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
  • Andrew HeaneyPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Orioles
  • Ryan O'HearnBatting3-4, 1 RBI
  • Cole IrvinPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 2 K

Scoring summary

  • 8Langford homered to left (404 feet), Grossman scored and García scored.11–2
  • 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–2
  • 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–2
  • 5Hill homered to center (436 feet).8–2
  • 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–2
  • 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–2
  • 5Lowe singled to left, Langford scored, Lowe out stretching at second.7–2
  • 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–2
  • 5Langford doubled to right, García scored.6–2
  • 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–2
  • 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
  • 4Kjerstad doubled to left, Hays scored, O'Hearn to third.5–2
  • 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
  • 4Smith singled to center, Knizner scored, Semien to second.5–1
  • 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
  • 4Knizner singled to left, Lowe scored, Knizner to second, Hill to third.4–1
  • 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
  • 4Lowe singled to center, Langford scored.3–1
  • 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
  • 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
  • 2O'Hearn singled to center, Hays scored.2–1
  • 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
  • 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
  • 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
  • 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
  • 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
  • 2Hill homered to left center (414 feet), Lowe scored.2–0
  • 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
  • 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
  • 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
  • 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
  • 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
  • 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Orioles 62%

LeanMiss
TEX 38%BAL 62%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.

Market
BAL 62%
ML TEX +150 / BAL -185
Pre-line forecast
BAL 59%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
BAL 61%
Ratings vs. market
−1.3 pts
BAL: Elo 60.6%, market 61.9%
Fair odds
BAL -162
TEX +162 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
TEX 3.7 – 4.8 BAL
Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorTEXBALWhy
Team rating15071565Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers−3−4TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Cole Irvin: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsBAL +75 EloBAL 60.6%
Market-implied ratingsBAL 59.1%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastBAL 59.3%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastBAL 61.9%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.

Try another venue →
Texas Rangers and Baltimore Orioles compared, with each team's league rank
TEXStatBAL
18th of 304.2Runs scored5.31st of 30
17th of 304.4Runs allowed3.86th of 30
18th of 30−0.2Margin+1.51st of 30
20th of 304–6Last 105–512th of 30
25th of 3017–27Road vs home29–167th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

RangersOrioles
145015001550league averageAprJulOctJanAprJul

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonTEXBAL
Run line37–4647–36
Last 106–43–7
Favorite18–2834–32
Underdog19–1813–4
Overs–unders33–49–145–36–2
Overs–unders, last 105–56–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

TEX 6–6 BAL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.